The USD 2 Billion Question (Or Is It USD 20 Billion?)

A practical guide to interpreting market data, identifying reliable figures, and understanding why estimates vary so dramatically

Search for “South Africa cold chain market size” and you’ll encounter a bewildering spread of figures. One report says USD 2 billion. Another claims USD 7 billion. A third suggests the market exceeds USD 20 billion. All published within the same year. All citing authoritative sources.

This isn’t sloppy research. It reflects a fundamental challenge in defining what “cold chain” actually means—and it matters enormously for anyone trying to make informed decisions about this industry.

This article won’t pretend to have the definitive number. Instead, we’ll explain why estimates vary, identify which figures carry the most confidence, acknowledge what we genuinely don’t know, and provide the operational context that pure market research often misses.

Why Market Size Estimates Vary So Dramatically

The variance in South Africa’s cold chain market estimates stems from three structural issues that affect all attempts to quantify this industry.

Scope definitions differ fundamentally. Some analysts count only third-party logistics services—the fees charged for cold storage and refrigerated transport. Others include the value of refrigeration equipment, temperature monitoring systems, insulated packaging, and supporting services. The broadest definitions capture the total economic activity required to maintain temperature-controlled supply chains, including energy costs and internal logistics operations by retailers and manufacturers.

These aren’t minor distinctions. The narrowest definition (3PL services only) produces figures around USD 2 billion. Adding equipment and technology roughly triples that figure. Including internal logistics operations and the full supporting ecosystem can push estimates beyond USD 15 billion.

No official statistics exist. Statistics South Africa tracks broad categories like “transport and storage” but doesn’t isolate cold chain activities. There’s no national registry of cold storage facilities, no database of refrigerated vehicles, no consolidated compliance records. Every market estimate relies on proprietary research methodologies, operator surveys, and statistical modelling—each with different assumptions and data sources.

Currency conversion and base years create confusion. Reports published in the same year may use different base years (2022, 2023, 2024) and different exchange rate assumptions. Given the rand’s volatility against the dollar, a figure of ZAR 15 billion could translate to anywhere from USD 750 million to USD 950 million depending on which exchange rate is applied.

What the Major Research Houses Report

Several research organisations publish South Africa-specific cold chain estimates. Understanding their scope helps interpret their figures.

• IMARC Group reports the cold chain logistics market at USD 2.04 billion (2024), projecting growth to USD 7.48 billion by 2033 at a compound annual growth rate of 13.85%. This figure focuses specifically on logistics services—storage and transport fees—excluding equipment and supporting services. It’s a conservative baseline with clear methodology.
• Mordor Intelligence estimates a larger figure of approximately USD 3.5 billion, with projections reaching USD 5.5 billion by 2029. Their scope appears somewhat broader than IMARC’s, though still focused primarily on logistics operations.
• Grand View Research reports USD 7.37 billion (2024), projecting growth to USD 36.8 billion by 2033—a notably aggressive 19.9% compound annual growth rate. This broader scope includes storage infrastructure, equipment, and monitoring systems. The growth projection assumes significant infrastructure investment and formalisation of currently informal operations.
• BlueWeave Consulting sits in the middle at approximately USD 10.4 billion, projecting growth to USD 20.5 billion by 2031 at 10.2% compound annual growth.

Our Working Assessment

For practical purposes, we suggest the following framework:

• Core logistics services (storage and transport fees): USD 2–4 billion. This represents the actual revenue generated by cold chain service providers and is the most relevant figure for operators and investors evaluating the 3PL market.
• Including equipment and technology: USD 7–10 billion. This captures the broader commercial ecosystem including refrigeration systems, monitoring equipment, and supporting services.
• Full ecosystem value: Potentially higher, but figures above USD 15 billion likely include substantial double-counting or define “cold chain” so broadly as to lose practical meaning.

Growth projections of 7–12% annually appear reasonable given underlying demand drivers. Projections above 15% assume either major formalisation of informal operations or infrastructure investment that hasn’t yet materialised.

South Africa’s Share of the African Market

South Africa operates the most developed cold chain infrastructure on the African continent. However, quantifying the exact share proves difficult.

Various estimates suggest South Africa represents between 27% and 70% of Africa’s total cold chain market, depending on how both figures are measured. The wide range reflects the same scope definition challenges, compounded by even greater data limitations across the rest of the continent.

What we can say with confidence: South Africa likely accounts for the majority of Africa’s formal commercial cold storage capacity. The country’s sophisticated retail sector, export-oriented agriculture, and pharmaceutical distribution requirements have driven infrastructure development that most African markets lack.

The frequently cited comparison that South Africa has more cold storage capacity than the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa combined appears directionally accurate, even if precise figures remain elusive.

Cold Storage Infrastructure: What We Know and Don’t Know

The Absence of a National Registry

No comprehensive, publicly available inventory of South Africa’s cold storage capacity exists. There’s no official database tracking total pallet positions, cubic metres of refrigerated space, facility ages, technology levels, or utilisation rates.

This matters. Without baseline data, it’s impossible to accurately assess capacity gaps, track investment impact, or benchmark performance. Every capacity figure in circulation—including those in this article—represents estimates based on operator disclosures, industry surveys, and statistical inference.

Capacity Estimates

Industry estimates suggest South Africa has between 400,000 and 600,000 commercial pallet positions in dedicated cold storage facilities. This excludes refrigerated space within retailer distribution centres and manufacturer-owned facilities, which likely adds substantial additional capacity that isn’t available to the general market.

Estimates including all commercial and private cold storage range as high as 650,000–750,000 pallet positions, though this figure carries lower confidence.

Utilisation rates appear high—industry sources suggest 80–90% in urban areas during peak seasons—but no systematic data collection confirms this. Rural and secondary market utilisation is thought to be lower, perhaps 60–70%, but again without verified data.

Geographic Distribution

Cold storage capacity concentrates heavily around three primary nodes, with significant gaps in interior provinces.

• Gauteng holds an estimated 35–50% of national capacity, serving as the primary distribution hub for domestic consumption. Operational research identifies approximately 15 verifiable facilities in the greater Johannesburg area, including operators such as Southern Cold Storage, Northern Cold Storage, Coldfeet, CCS Logistics (Midrand), Ayoba Cold Storage, Chilleweni, CTI Coldstore, FMC Lanseria, Reefer Cold Storage, Clayville Cold Store, and Breakeven Cold Storage. The province’s inland location means all temperature-sensitive goods—whether destined for local retail or originating from coastal ports—flow through Gauteng facilities.
• Western Cape accounts for approximately 25–40% of capacity, with a strong orientation toward agricultural exports. Operational mapping identifies over 20 facilities in the greater Cape Town area, including Table Bay Cold Storage, ROS International, Storage King, Atlantic Hills, Commercial Cold Holdings, Two Oceans Commercial Cold Store, Lansdowne Cold Store, Crossberth Cold Store (fruit export specialist), Frio Cold Storage, Snolink Logistics, SAFT Killarney, SAFT Atlantic, Atlantic Cold Store, BJK Cold Store, Superfreeze Cold Storage, Saysons Cold Store, Commercial Cold Store, Durbanville Cold Storage, CCS Logistics Duncan, Kaytrad Cold Store, and Blaauwberg Cold Storage. The Garden Route is notably underserved, with only Seavuna (Mossel Bay) and Country Style (George) identified as verifiable facilities.
• KwaZulu-Natal holds an estimated 15–20% of capacity, centred on Durban—the primary port for citrus exports and a major gateway for imported goods. The Durban area hosts approximately 13 identified facilities including Commercial Cold Holdings (iDube), Reefer Cold Storage, Maersk, Ayoba Cold Storage, Ethekwini Cold Stores, iHold, Somerset Cold Storage, ROS International, Durban Central Cold Store, Commercial Cold Storage, Congella Coldstores, and FPT Group.
• Eastern Cape represents perhaps 5–10% of current capacity but appears to be the fastest-growing region, driven by expanding citrus production and the development of the Gqeberha (Port Elizabeth) and Coega corridor. Identified facilities include Aspire Storage (East London and St Francis Bay), Hume International (Port Elizabeth), Elliot Cold Storage (East London), Wilsonia Cold Store (East London), and Zwelitsha Cold Storage.
• Free State holds strategic importance despite limited formal cold storage infrastructure. Bloemfontein’s central location provides efficient access to all major routes—a geographic advantage that Hestony Transport has leveraged to build the country’s largest independent refrigerated fleet. The only verifiable cold storage facility identified is Glacial Distribution in Bloemfontein.
• Interior provinces—Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West, and Northern Cape—have severely limited formal cold chain infrastructure. Polokwane has one identified facility (Value Logistics). Nelspruit’s closest identified cold storage is in Barberton. Upington and Kimberley have no verifiable independent cold storage facilities. These regions represent significant gaps in the national network and present investment opportunities, particularly as agricultural production expands and e-commerce demands last-mile cold chain solutions.

Pricing Benchmarks

Storage pricing varies by temperature requirement and region. Industry sources suggest the following approximate ranges:

• Frozen storage (-18°C to -25°C): R80–120 per pallet per week (R350–520 per month)
• Chilled storage (+2°C to +8°C): R100–150 per pallet per week (R430–650 per month)
• Energy surcharges: 5–15% above base rates have become common since 2022, reflecting load shedding mitigation costs.

These benchmarks carry uncertainty—actual pricing depends on volume commitments, contract terms, and specific facility locations. Regional pricing variance is poorly documented.

Major Operators

The formal cold storage market has consolidated significantly in recent years, with two operators now controlling a substantial share of commercial capacity.

• Commercial Cold Holdings (CCH) operates approximately 153,000–160,000 pallet positions across 11 facilities in South Africa and Namibia. The company has grown aggressively through acquisition, absorbing CCS Logistics, Sequence Logistics, iDube Cold Storage, and Port Elizabeth Cold Storage (PECS) between 2024 and 2025. CCH is owned by African Infrastructure Investment Managers (AIIM), part of the Old Mutual group.
• Vector Logistics operates approximately 100,000–140,000 pallet positions with a particularly strong retail distribution network, including long-standing relationships with major supermarket chains. In 2023, A.P. Moller Capital (part of the Maersk group) acquired Vector, signalling global logistics players’ interest in South African cold chain assets. Vector’s capacity includes the former Imperial Cold Logistics operations.
• Maersk has entered the market directly with its Belcon facility in Cape Town—a R1.7 billion investment adding approximately 20,000–32,000 pallet positions. This greenfield development, operational in 2024/25, represents one of the largest single cold storage investments in recent South African history.

Beyond these major players, numerous regional operators, specialised facilities (particularly for fruit exports), and smaller independent cold rooms serve specific markets. The “long tail” of smaller operators is substantial but poorly documented.

What This Means Operationally

The CCH and Vector dominance—together controlling perhaps 60% of formal commercial capacity—creates both stability and concentration risk. Large operators can invest in technology, energy resilience, and compliance systems that smaller players cannot afford. However, market concentration may limit options for customers and could affect pricing dynamics.

The entry of global players (Maersk directly, A.P. Moller through Vector, Lineage Logistics with a stake in RSA Group) suggests international confidence in South Africa’s long-term cold chain potential despite well-publicised operational challenges.

The SME Access Gap: Contract Storage vs Flexible Solutions

While total cold storage capacity has grown through major investments, a structural gap affects smaller businesses: the shortage of independent, non-contracted cold storage facilities offering flexible, short-term access.

The Problem

The prevailing industry model favours long-term contracted storage engagements, catering primarily to large producers and distributors. Major operators focus on comprehensive logistics services with multi-year agreements, which creates barriers for businesses requiring more flexible arrangements.

This particularly affects:

• Small to medium enterprises requiring flexible capacity without long-term commitments find limited options outside the major metros.
• Online frozen food retailers need small-volume storage with pick, pack, and dispatch capabilities—services that large-scale operations don’t prioritise.
• “Farmer to Kitchen” initiatives require consolidation points near agricultural areas, not just in consumption centres.
• Courier and distribution services need overnight holding and consolidation facilities to enable efficient next-day delivery models—collecting goods throughout the day, consolidating overnight, and fanning out deliveries the following morning.

Independent Operators Filling the Gap

Several independent facilities have built business models specifically addressing flexible storage needs:

• Coldfeet (Northriding, Gauteng) operates as a boutique facility specialising in independent representation, consolidation, and pick-pack-dispatch services for frozen products. Their model directly addresses SME needs without requiring long-term contracts.
• Chilleweni Cold Storage Solutions (Johannesburg) is a family-run company established in 2004, operating three warehouses. They offer a full service range including supplier stock collection, preparation, weighing, freezing, stock rotation, cross-docking, order picking, and delivery. Their willingness to provide short-term storage and tailored solutions differentiates them from large-scale operators.
• Southern Cold Storage (Gauteng) operates a purpose-built facility with over 3,450 pallet positions at temperatures from -18°C to -30°C, serving businesses requiring deep-freeze storage.
• Reefer Cold Storage (KwaZulu-Natal) has operated independently since 1993 with 15,000 pallet positions for frozen, chilled, citrus, and ambient products. Their location near Durban port serves import/export businesses, and they offer bonded storage options.

These operators demonstrate that independent cold storage can succeed by focusing on flexibility, tailored services, and underserved market segments.

Geographic Distribution of the Gap

The shortage of flexible storage options is most acute outside the major metropolitan areas. Operational research reveals:

• Well-served areas: Cape Town (20+ identified facilities), Johannesburg (15+ facilities), Durban (13+ facilities)
• Emerging capacity: Eastern Cape (6 facilities), particularly around Gqeberha
• Severely underserved: Bloemfontein (1 facility), Polokwane (1 facility), Nelspruit (nearest in Barberton)
• Complete gaps: Upington, Kimberley—no verifiable independent cold storage identified

This geographic imbalance restricts the growth of frozen food service providers and limits market access for agricultural producers in interior provinces.

Refrigerated Transport: Even Less Visibility

No Vehicle Registry

South Africa has no centralised database distinguishing refrigerated vehicles from standard freight trucks. The national eNaTIS vehicle registry doesn’t categorise by temperature control capability. Every fleet size estimate in circulation is derived from operator surveys, industry association data, or statistical modelling.

Fleet Size Estimates

Estimates vary significantly depending on what’s counted:

• Heavy commercial vehicles (trucks and trailers above 3.5 tonnes): Industry sources suggest 5,000–7,000 units with refrigeration capability.
• Including all refrigerated vehicles (adding delivery vans, smaller rigids, and owner-operator units): Estimates range from 25,000 to 35,000 units.

The wide range reflects genuine uncertainty, not just definitional differences. No one knows the actual number.

Fleet Condition and Technology

Fleet modernisation is uneven. Major operators typically run modern, fuel-efficient vehicles with telematics and real-time temperature monitoring. Smaller operators and owner-drivers often use older equipment with less sophisticated monitoring.

This technology gap has compliance implications. Temperature data logging is increasingly required for food safety certification and pharmaceutical distribution, yet an unknown proportion of the fleet lacks the capability to generate verifiable records.

Electric and hybrid transport refrigeration units remain rare in South Africa—likely below 5% of the fleet. While adoption is growing in developed markets, South African operators face additional barriers including higher capital costs, limited charging infrastructure on long-haul routes, and the practical challenge of load shedding affecting depot charging.

Major Transport Operators

The refrigerated transport market is more fragmented than cold storage, with significant capacity based outside the main metropolitan areas. Notable operators include:

• Hestony Transport operates approximately 500 trucks from its Bloemfontein headquarters—likely the largest independent refrigerated fleet in South Africa. Founded in 1987 with a single vehicle, the company has grown to approximately 765 employees and serves all SADC countries including Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique, and Eswatini. The Free State location provides strategic access to all major routes, challenging the assumption that cold chain capability concentrates only in coastal and Gauteng metros.
• DSV operates one of South Africa’s largest pharmaceutical cold chain networks, with its DSV Cold facility at OR Tambo International Airport purpose-built for healthcare logistics. The company claims to be the largest private cold chain distributor of pharmaceuticals in the country, with SAHPRA-approved facilities and GDP-compliant operations.
• Super Group is a JSE-listed logistics conglomerate operating over 2,000 vehicles across its various divisions, including significant multi-temperature capability. The group owns Baleka Freight, which operates refrigerated services.
• Vector Logistics combines storage and transport capabilities with a fleet of approximately 440–500 vehicles post-integration with Imperial’s cold logistics operations.
• HFR Transport operates over 200 trucks from Boksburg, reportedly covering approximately 3.8 million kilometres monthly with a particularly strong position on the N1 corridor between Cape Town and Gauteng.
• Tanzer Transport, founded in 1982, has built a 30-year relationship with Pick n Pay, providing refrigerated distribution across Gauteng, Free State, Eastern Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal.
• CTI Logistics specialises in fruit export logistics, handling all major export protocols and operating refrigerated transport from production areas to ports.
• LMC Express operates over 150 vehicles with multi-temperature capability, focusing on major metropolitan areas including Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, and Gqeberha.
• Unitrans runs approximately 300 vehicles with a strong position in agricultural logistics, particularly the citrus corridor.
• Laser Logistics operates approximately 140 vehicles, with 65 dedicated to refrigerated transport. They also operate blast freezer facilities for clients requiring rapid temperature reduction.
• DHL maintains pharmaceutical cold chain capability in South Africa as part of its global healthcare logistics network.

Smaller operators like Cool Runners Logistics (Pretoria-based, serving seven provinces including Free State, Mpumalanga, Limpopo, and North West), Baleka Freight, and LiebenLogistics demonstrate that refrigerated transport extends beyond the main corridors, though these secondary routes receive less attention in industry analysis.

Internal fleets operated by major retailers (Shoprite, Pick n Pay, Woolworths) and food manufacturers add substantial capacity that doesn’t appear in commercial transport statistics. Shoprite’s Transfrig operation alone runs approximately 1,600 trailers, many equipped with solar panels for refrigeration unit power.

The Citrus Export Lens: High-Confidence Data

While overall market statistics remain contested, South Africa’s citrus export data provides a window into cold chain demand with unusually high confidence. The Citrus Growers’ Association (CGA) maintains detailed statistics that offer concrete insight.

2025 Season Performance

The 2025 citrus season set records, with 203.4 million cartons (15kg equivalent) packed for export—a 19% increase over 2024 projections. This volume required approximately 115,000 refrigerated container (TEU) movements, up 22% year-on-year.

These figures matter because citrus exports create the most intense seasonal demand on South Africa’s cold chain infrastructure. From approximately May through September, the industry must handle this massive volume while maintaining strict temperature protocols (typically -0.5°C to 4°C depending on variety) from packhouse through port and onto vessels.

Port Distribution

Durban handles the majority of citrus exports—approximately 52–70% depending on the season—making the port’s efficiency critical to the industry. Cape Town handles roughly 30%, with Gqeberha growing as Eastern Cape citrus production expands.

A small but increasing volume moves through Maputo in Mozambique, offering an alternative route that avoids some of South Africa’s port congestion.

Rail vs Road

Despite ongoing efforts to increase rail utilisation, road transport dominates reefer container movements. Estimates suggest 80–95% of refrigerated containers reach ports by road rather than rail.

This road dependence reflects chronic reliability issues with Transnet Freight Rail. While the 2024/25 season showed some improvement—approximately 980–1,250 reefer containers moved by rail to Durban compared to 846 for all of 2024—rail remains a minor contributor.

The road dependence has significant cost and infrastructure implications. Thousands of truck movements stress road networks, contribute to port congestion, and increase transport costs compared to rail alternatives.

Growth Trajectory

The CGA targets 260 million cartons by 2032—implying more than 60% growth in cold chain demand over roughly seven years. Meeting this target would require substantial investment in storage capacity, transport fleet, and port infrastructure.

Pharmaceutical Cold Chain: High Value, Limited Visibility

The pharmaceutical cold chain operates somewhat separately from food logistics, with stricter compliance requirements but less publicly available data.

Market Size Uncertainty

Estimates for pharmaceutical cold chain services range from approximately USD 125 million to USD 250 million annually, with some broader definitions suggesting up to USD 530 million. The variance reflects different treatments of packaging, storage, and distribution services.

What’s clear: pharmaceutical cold chain commands premium pricing due to stringent Good Distribution Practice (GDP) compliance requirements, but represents a smaller volume than food logistics.

Compliance Capacity

Facilities meeting full SAHPRA (South African Health Products Regulatory Authority) GDP compliance requirements likely number fewer than 100,000 pallet positions nationally—a small fraction of total cold storage capacity. This creates constraints during demand surges, as occurred during COVID-19 vaccine distribution.

Key Players

• Imperial Health Sciences (now part of DP World) operates the largest dedicated pharmaceutical cold chain in South Africa.
• DSV maintains significant pharmaceutical logistics capability, with its DSV Cold facility at OR Tambo purpose-built for temperature-sensitive healthcare products. The company operates SAHPRA-approved facilities meeting GDP requirements.
• DHL maintains pharmaceutical cold chain capability as part of its global healthcare logistics network.
• Biovac, as South Africa’s primary vaccine manufacturer, operates specialised cold chain infrastructure for domestic production and distribution.

The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily expanded pharmaceutical cold chain capacity, particularly for 2–8°C storage. However, the sustainability of this expanded capacity—and whether it remains maintained and available—is uncertain.

Technology Requirements

Pharmaceutical distribution increasingly requires continuous temperature monitoring with data logging, real-time deviation alerts, and complete chain of custody documentation. These requirements drive technology investment but also create barriers for operators without sophisticated monitoring systems.

The Load Shedding Reality

No discussion of South African cold chain can ignore the impact of Eskom’s power instability. Load shedding represents perhaps the single biggest operational and financial challenge facing the industry.

Scale of the Problem

South Africa experienced over 200 days of load shedding in both 2023 and 2024, frequently at stages 4–6 (affecting 4,000–6,000 MW of capacity). Cold chain operations, which require continuous power to maintain temperature, face direct exposure to these outages.

Cost Impact

Industry sources consistently report load shedding has added 15–30% to cold storage operating costs. This increase comes from multiple sources:

• Diesel generator operation. Large cold stores may consume hundreds of thousands of rands worth of diesel monthly during intensive load shedding periods. Some facilities report annual diesel costs of USD 500,000 to USD 1 million.
• Generator maintenance and replacement. Equipment not designed for continuous operation degrades faster when running daily for extended periods.
• Capital investment in resilience. Solar PV installations, battery storage systems, and backup generator upgrades require significant capital expenditure—R5 million to R50 million per facility for major operators.
• Operational disruption. Staff time managing power transitions, product temperature monitoring during outages, and emergency response protocols all carry costs.

Industry Response

The industry has largely adapted through investment in energy resilience:

• Solar PV is now nearly universal among major operators, with new facilities designed for substantial on-site generation.
• Battery storage is growing but remains expensive for the scale of backup required by large cold stores.
• Generator systems have been upgraded and expanded across the industry.
• Operational practices have evolved to improve energy efficiency—better door discipline, optimised loading patterns, improved insulation.

New facilities like Maersk’s Belcon development and CCH’s recent expansions are designed with “grid-independent” capability—able to operate without Eskom supply for extended periods.

Pricing Implications

Many operators now apply explicit energy or load shedding surcharges of 5–15% to offset these costs. This effectively passes the impact through to customers but represents a structural cost increase for the entire cold chain.

Emerging Solutions: Cooling-as-a-Service

One innovation gaining traction in South Africa addresses the capital barrier for cold chain investment: Cooling-as-a-Service (CaaS).

The Model

CaaS allows businesses to pay for cooling capacity on an as-needed basis rather than investing in refrigeration equipment ownership. A service provider installs, maintains, and operates the cooling infrastructure, charging based on actual usage or capacity consumed.

This approach significantly reduces upfront capital requirements, making temperature-controlled storage accessible to businesses that couldn’t otherwise afford it.

South African Implementation

Energy Partners has implemented CaaS solutions for several South African clients, including a documented case with Dr. Oetker. These implementations demonstrate improved energy efficiency—often using natural refrigerants with lower environmental impact—while eliminating capital expenditure for the end user.

The model is particularly relevant for:

• Agricultural processors requiring seasonal cooling capacity without year-round fixed costs
• SMEs unable to finance refrigeration equipment purchases
• Operations in areas with unreliable grid power, where CaaS providers can bundle solar and backup systems into the service offering

Limitations

CaaS remains relatively new in South Africa, with limited adoption outside early implementers. The model requires long-term service relationships and may not suit all applications. However, it represents an innovative approach to addressing the capital and expertise barriers that constrain cold chain expansion.

What We Don’t Know: Honest Acknowledgment of Data Gaps

Credibility requires acknowledging what the available data doesn’t tell us. The following gaps affect any attempt to comprehensively assess South Africa’s cold chain industry.

No National Capacity Registry

Without an official inventory of cold storage facilities, we cannot state with confidence: total national capacity, facility age distribution, technology levels, energy efficiency performance, or compliance certification rates. All figures in circulation are estimates.

No Vehicle Registry

Without data distinguishing refrigerated vehicles, we cannot state with confidence: total fleet size, fleet age distribution, technology capability, or temperature compliance performance. Estimates vary by a factor of five or more.

Informal and Small-Scale Operations

Most analysis focuses on formal, commercial operations. But South Africa has a substantial informal sector—small cold rooms serving township retail, owner-operator refrigerated vehicles serving local markets, unregistered facilities serving agricultural areas. This “kasi cold chain” is largely invisible in market data.

To the extent informal operations serve important food security functions but operate below compliance standards, their exclusion from formal analysis understates both the size of temperature-controlled distribution and the scale of compliance challenges.

Temperature Performance Data

We found no consolidated data on:

• Temperature excursion rates during storage or transport
• Product losses attributable specifically to cold chain failures
• Compliance rates with temperature requirements across the industry

Without this data, claims about cold chain effectiveness remain unverifiable.

Food Loss Attribution

Estimates suggest 10–35% of perishable food in South Africa is lost or wasted, with an economic value potentially exceeding R10 billion annually. However, we could not find data breaking down what portion of this loss is specifically attributable to cold chain failures versus other causes (harvesting damage, market access, consumer behaviour).

The frequently cited figure that “Africa loses 40–50% of food to inadequate cold chain” likely overstates the cold-chain-specific component. Research on sub-Saharan African post-harvest losses uses various methodologies that don’t isolate cold chain failure from other loss factors.

Technology Adoption

Claims about IoT adoption, real-time monitoring penetration, and telematics usage in refrigerated fleets are based on industry estimates and surveys, not verified data. Actual adoption rates may be lower than reported, particularly among smaller operators.

Skills and Training

Multiple sources cite skills shortages—refrigeration technicians, cold chain managers, compliance specialists—as industry constraints. However, we found no quantified assessment of the shortage or systematic data on training capacity and output.

Segments Explicitly Excluded from Most Analysis

Market reports typically focus on formal, commercial operations. Several significant segments receive limited attention:

Retailer-Owned Infrastructure

Major retailers like Shoprite, Pick n Pay, and Woolworths operate substantial cold chain infrastructure—distribution centres, transport fleets, store refrigeration—that often doesn’t appear in third-party logistics market analysis. This internal infrastructure serves only the owning retailer but represents significant cold chain capacity.

Agricultural Cooperatives

Fruit export infrastructure, particularly packhouses and pre-cooling facilities, may be owned by agricultural cooperatives or producer groups rather than logistics companies. Their treatment in market analysis varies.

Interior and Secondary Market Operations

Industry analysis tends to focus on Gauteng, Western Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal—the main consumption and export hubs. This creates a blind spot for operators serving interior markets. Companies like Hestony Transport (Bloemfontein) and Cool Runners Logistics (Pretoria, serving seven provinces) demonstrate that significant cold chain capability exists outside the coastal metros and main corridors.

The strategic value of interior locations—particularly central hubs like Bloemfontein with efficient access to all major routes—receives insufficient attention in market research that concentrates on port-proximate infrastructure.

Informal and Township Cold Chain

Small-scale cold storage serving informal retail, spaza shops, and township food distribution is largely invisible in formal statistics. This segment may be substantial but operates below the radar of commercial market research.

Cross-Border Operations

South Africa serves as a cold chain hub for the broader SADC region, with flows to and from neighbouring countries. Cross-border operations add complexity and volume that may not be fully captured in South Africa-specific analysis.

Investment and Consolidation: What Recent Activity Signals

Despite operational challenges, recent years have seen substantial investment and consolidation activity, suggesting investor confidence in long-term fundamentals.

Major Transactions (2022–2025)

• DP World’s acquisition of Imperial Logistics (2022) for approximately USD 890 million brought one of the world’s largest port and logistics operators into South Africa’s cold chain market. Imperial’s cold logistics operations, now integrated with Vector, represent a significant capability under global ownership.
• A.P. Moller Capital’s acquisition of Vector Logistics (2023) extended Maersk group involvement beyond the direct Belcon investment. The transaction value was not disclosed but represents another major global player taking a position.
• Lineage Logistics’ 30% stake in RSA Group (2023) brought the world’s largest temperature-controlled warehousing REIT into the South African market.
• CCH’s acquisition spree (2024–2025)—absorbing CCS Logistics, Sequence Logistics, iDube Cold Storage, and PECS—consolidated substantial capacity under the AIIM-backed platform. Individual transaction values were not disclosed, but AIIM reportedly committed USD 150 million to the platform’s expansion.
• Maersk’s Belcon greenfield investment (2024/25) of R1.7 billion (approximately USD 100 million) represents one of the largest single cold storage developments in South African history.
• CCS expansion announced R500 million in new investment (2024), adding capacity prior to its absorption into CCH.

What This Signals

Global logistics players don’t make investments of this scale without substantial due diligence. Their entry suggests:

• Long-term confidence in South African cold chain fundamentals despite short-term challenges
• Belief that infrastructure investment can generate acceptable returns
• Strategic interest in South Africa as a gateway for broader African cold chain development
• Expectation that consolidation will continue, favouring scaled operators

The concentration of ownership among a smaller number of well-capitalised players may improve industry standards and investment capacity, though it also raises questions about market competition and pricing dynamics.

Looking Forward: Reasonable Expectations

Demand Drivers

Several factors support continued cold chain growth:

• Agricultural export expansion. The citrus industry’s 260-million-carton target by 2032 alone implies substantial demand growth. Similar expansion in avocados, table grapes, and other fresh produce adds further pressure.
• Retail formalisation. South Africa’s retail sector continues to formalise, with supermarket penetration expanding into secondary markets. Each new store requires cold chain support.
• E-commerce growth. Online grocery and meal kit delivery, while still a small market share, is growing rapidly and requires last-mile cold chain capability. The current shortage of flexible, SME-accessible storage constrains this growth.
• Pharmaceutical localisation. Policy emphasis on local pharmaceutical manufacturing, including vaccine production, will require expanded GDP-compliant cold chain infrastructure.

Constraints on Growth

• Energy reliability. Despite significant investment in resilience, load shedding continues to constrain operations and inflate costs. Until grid stability improves, the industry operates with a structural disadvantage.
• Infrastructure bottlenecks. Port congestion, particularly at Durban, and limited rail reliability constrain export capacity and inflate transport costs.
• Skills availability. The shortage of qualified refrigeration technicians, cold chain managers, and compliance specialists limits operational capability.
• Capital access. While major operators can access investment capital, smaller players may struggle to fund the technology and compliance upgrades increasingly required.
• Geographic gaps. The concentration of infrastructure in three metro areas leaves interior provinces underserved, limiting market access for agricultural producers and constraining e-commerce expansion.

Reasonable Growth Expectations

Based on available evidence, we consider growth projections of 7–12% annually plausible for the core logistics market. This would see the market roughly double over a decade.

Higher growth projections (15–20% annually) assume either significant formalisation of informal operations or infrastructure investment beyond current commitments. While possible, these outcomes are not certain.

Practical Implications

For Operators

The data limitations identified in this analysis suggest opportunities for operators who can provide verified performance data—temperature compliance records, energy efficiency metrics, utilisation statistics. As the industry matures, the ability to demonstrate operational performance may become a competitive differentiator.

For SMEs and Online Retailers

The shortage of flexible, non-contracted cold storage creates genuine barriers to market entry and expansion. Understanding which independent operators serve this segment—and where geographic gaps exist—is essential for business planning.

For Investors

The variance in market estimates underscores the importance of bottom-up due diligence rather than reliance on published market sizes. Understanding what’s included in any given estimate—and what’s excluded—is essential for realistic valuation and opportunity assessment.

Investment opportunities may exist in underserved segments: flexible SME-focused storage, interior province infrastructure, CaaS models, and technology solutions addressing compliance and monitoring gaps.

For Service Providers

The acknowledged gaps in technology adoption, compliance monitoring, and skills training represent market opportunities for providers who can address these needs.

For Policy Makers

The absence of basic industry data—a national facility registry, vehicle classification, compliance tracking—hampers policy development and investment planning. Industry associations and government agencies could collaborate to address these gaps.

Sources & References

About These Sources

This article synthesises findings from multiple market research reports, industry associations, company announcements, government sources, and operational research. Where sources conflict—as they frequently do on market size—we have presented the range of estimates rather than selecting a single figure. All market projections represent publisher forecasts and should be evaluated critically.

Data Currency Note

Market data, investment figures, and company statistics reflect information available as of December 2025. The cold chain industry evolves continuously; readers should verify current status for time-sensitive decisions. Investment transactions and capacity expansions may have progressed since publication.

Methodology Note

This analysis acknowledges significant data gaps in the South African cold chain industry. Where official statistics do not exist, we rely on industry estimates and clearly identify these as estimates rather than verified figures. Our approach prioritises honesty about uncertainty over false precision. Regional facility identification draws on operational research conducted by industry participants, which may not capture all facilities but provides more granular geographic data than published market reports.

Market Research Reports

• IMARC Group. “South Africa Cold Chain Logistics Market: Industry Trends, Share, Size, Growth, Opportunity and Forecast 2024-2033.” December 2023.
• Mordor Intelligence. “South Africa Cold Chain Logistics Market – Size & Share Analysis – Growth Trends & Forecasts (2024-2029).” 2024.
• Grand View Research. “South Africa Cold Chain Market Size & Share Analysis – Growth Trends & Forecasts 2025-2033.” 2024.
• BlueWeave Consulting. “South Africa Cold Chain Logistics Market Size Almost Doubles.” 2024.
• TraceData Research. “South Africa Cold Chain Industry Report.” September 2024.
• Makreo Research. “South Africa Logistics, Warehousing and Cold Chain Market Size and Forecast (2019-2030).”

Industry Associations

• Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA). “2025 Export Season Statistics.” 2025.
• Global Cold Chain Alliance (GCCA). “The Cold Chain in Africa.” 2025.
• Global Cold Chain Alliance (GCCA). “Strengthening Cold Chain Resilience Amid Rolling Energy Blackouts aka Load-shedding.” 2024.

Company Sources

• Commercial Cold Holdings. Press releases on iDube, PECS, Sequence, and CCS acquisitions. 2024-2025.
• Maersk. “South Africa’s Exporters to Benefit from Maersk’s Cold Chain Infrastructure Investment.” October 2025.
• African Infrastructure Investment Managers (AIIM). “AIIM Expands Temperature-Controlled Logistics Platform.” 2025.
• Vector Logistics. Corporate information and fleet data.
• Hestony Transport. Company profile and fleet information.
• Tanzer Transport. Company history and service coverage.
• DSV. Healthcare logistics and DSV Cold facility information.
• Chilleweni Cold Storage Solutions. Company services and history.
• Coldfeet. Independent representation and boutique cold storage services.
• Reefer Cold Storage. Facility information and services.
• Southern Cold Storage. Facility specifications.
• DP World. “DP World Completes Acquisition of Imperial Logistics.” February 2022.
• Lineage Logistics. “Lineage Announces Strategic Investment in RSA Group.” November 2023.
• Energy Partners. Cooling-as-a-Service case studies including Dr. Oetker implementation.
• Cooling as a Service Initiative. CaaS South Africa: Dr. Oetker case study.

Government and Regulatory Sources

• South African Health Products Regulatory Authority (SAHPRA). “South African Good Wholesaling Practice Guidelines.”
• Transnet National Ports Authority. Port performance statistics and reports. 2023-2025.
• National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA). Private power project approvals.

Industry Publications

• Engineering News. Various articles on cold chain investments and developments. 2023-2025.
• Freight News. Cold storage expansion coverage. 2024.
• SAnews. “SA Citrus Exports Hit Record 203 Million Cartons in 2025.”
• Cold Link Africa. “Keeping it Cool in Public Cold Stores.” Industry analysis.

Agricultural Sector Sources

• USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. “Load Shedding and the Economic Strain on the Food Supply Chain.” Report SF2023-0005. 2023.

Operational Research

• The Frozen Food Courier. “Availability of Cold Storage Facilities in South Africa’s Main Centers: Opportunities and Gaps.” Primary research on regional cold storage distribution and independent operator identification. 2025.

Related Resources

• Cold Chain Glossary — Definitions of 150+ industry terms
• South African Cold Chain Certifications Guide — Compliance requirements explained
• Directory: Cold Storage Providers
• Directory: Refrigerated Transport Companies
• Directory: Temperature Monitoring Solutions

About ColdChainSA

ColdChainSA.com is South Africa’s specialised cold chain industry directory and resource platform, connecting service providers with clients who need temperature-controlled logistics solutions. Our directory includes verified listings across cold storage, refrigerated transport, equipment suppliers, monitoring technology, and compliance consulting.

This analysis draws on publicly available market research, company disclosures, industry association data, and operational experience in South African refrigerated transport. We’ve made every effort to present information accurately and to clearly distinguish verified data from estimates and projections.